I've never been one
to stand aside!
First a disclaimer -- I heat with oil, as do most of the folks right around here, for the simple reason that natural gas hasn't gotten this far out in the boonies. Plus, it is a monopoly in these parts and very expensive and impossible to get service for those that do use it. That said, though, I'll try to take a fair look at some of your questions.
Economics -- historically, gas and oil have moved more or less together; they may well continue to do so, although there is some evidence that oil may rise slightly more, slightly faster. I wouldn't want to bet the farm, though, either way.
Political stability. Most of the natural gas in dear old USA comes from either USA or Canada, with USA very much in the lead. Other than some environmental concerns regarding extraction, there is no reason to suppose that that will change in the near future, unless the environmental lobby persuades people that the extraction techniques used for tight gas are bad. In which case, all bets are off. Much of the oil used (but by no means all), however, comes from the near east. There is the potential, though, of replacing that oil with oil primarily from Canada; again, the questions there revolve around the environmental lobby. I would not, in all honesty, be prepared to say that North American sources are more stable than near eastern ones; the latter, of course, have a number of different ways to get into combative trouble. The North American sources are, however, much more likey to run into heavy environmental opposition. Could go either way.
Impact on the environment? Well... I'm not sure I really want to go there on the Wall. Much too hot button, and far too little hard science and engineering and fact. I will only say there that in what I would regard as an ideal world, electricity would be very cheap and very plentiful from sources with no atmospheric impact and very little other impact, and I would be using electricity to fire my boiler. We could have gone there 60 years ago. We still could. I doubt that we will, sadly.
Jamie
Building superintendent/caretaker, 7200 sq. ft. historic house museum with dependencies in New England.
Hoffman Equipped System (all original except boiler), Weil-McClain 580, 2.75 gph Carlin, Vapourstat 0.5 -- 6.0 ounces per square inch
